Air Trade, Air Cargo Demand, and Network Analysis: Case of the United States

This chapter investigates the effects of economic development, FDI, trade barriers, product characteristics, and air transport network connectivity on both air trade and air cargo demand. The analysis applies gravity model and estimates the air trade and air cargo demand models using seemingly unrelated regressions based on data for the air cargo markets between the United States and its top 61 trading partner countries during the 2004–2019 period. By developing and incorporating “investment distance” as a determining factor in the estimation of air trade, our study fills the gap in literature and sheds light on the importance of air cargo transport in enabling and facilitating the rapid growth of global value chains in recent decades. The results suggest that higher level of FDI between the US and its trading partner countries helps stimulate air trade. Moreover, we also develop several network centrality metrics and examine their relationship with regional air connectivity, which in turn has a positive impact on air cargo traffic. Further analysis using Granger causality tests provides strong evidence supporting the importance of air cargo services as an engine for economic growth and international trade in a dynamic global economic landscape.