Space Commercialization and the Rise of Constellations: The Resulting Impact on the Kessler Effect

Research output: Contribution to conferencePresentation

Abstract

The Kessler Effect was predicated on the notion that the addition of objects into orbit around the Earth could reach a tipping point in which space debris would become so condensed that it would restrict our ability to launch anything into orbit. While we are certainly not there yet, launch windows are an essential step in the mission planning process. The rise of constellations fueled by the recent commercialization of space further complicates this scenario and is a cause for concern among researchers and innovators alike. However, advances in technology, specifically, debris mitigation strategies, may prolong or even minimize the likelihood of the Kessler Effect becoming a reality. To examine this problem, the current and projected number of satellite launches must be reviewed against debris mitigation strategies and then compared to the total number of tracked debris, as identified by the European Space Agency (ESA). A multiple linear regression model will be used to illustrate the potential impact of additional satellite launches along with projected mitigation strategies on the total number of debris. The independent variables will be the projected number of launches and the successful deployment of end-of-life mission strategies. The dependent variable will be the total number of tracked debris. The resulting impact on the Kessler Effect will then be discussed. The role of space commercialization must also be reviewed when considering this problem, given the significant increase in the number of commercial launches over the last several decades. Therefore, a historical analysis of the commercialization of space as well as the resulting advances in orbital debris mitigation strategies will be conducted to provide a foundation for the analysis. The conclusions of this research will contribute to existing knowledge on the impact of constellations and orbital debris on the Kessler Effect.
Original languageAmerican English
StatePublished - Mar 2023
EventInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Aerospace Conference - Big Sky, Montana
Duration: Mar 1 2023 → …

Conference

ConferenceInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Aerospace Conference
Period3/1/23 → …

Keywords

  • The Kessler Effect
  • European Space Agency
  • Commercial Space Flight

Disciplines

  • Aerospace Engineering

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